New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs, NBA 2025-26 Season, Today Match Prediction
New York Knicks
San Antonio Spurs
Can San Antonio Spurs topple New York Knicks?
- New York's 12-game playoff winning streak came to an end in Game 3, and now they face the pressure of protecting home court in Game 4 to avoid the series swinging back to San Antonio tied 2–2.
- San Antonio stormed into Madison Square Garden as a 2–0 underdog and silenced the crowd, winning Game 3 to cut the deficit to 2–1 the Spurs now head into Game 4 with a chance to level the series for the first time in these Finals.
- The Knicks lead the series 2-1.
San Antonio Spurs to Win and cover the spread (2.4).
| Tournament: | NBA 2025-26 Season |
| Live Streaming: | NBA League Pass |
| Venue: | Madison Square Garden, New York |
| Tip Off: | 06:00:00 |
New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs Basteball Odds
| Bookmaker | Team A | Team B |
|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.77 | 2.06 |
New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs Match Prediction & Analysis
San Antonio showed a lot of resilience as a team in Game 3. Although it also helps to have Victor Wembanyama go off for 32 points including 13 in the fourth quarter, outduelling Jalen Brunson in the frame and having Stephon Castle channel his UConn days.
The Spurs proved they can win at MSG when they are at their best and Wembanyama is at his most unstoppable. The Knicks proved they can lose at MSG when their best player shoots 7-for-25 twice in a row and the fourth-quarter defensive rotations break down.
Both of those facts sit above everything else heading into Game 4. This is the most important game of the NBA Finals so far a 3-1 Knicks lead is as good as over; a 2-2 tie sends this series back to San Antonio with everything to play for. The Brunson correction is coming. The MSG crowd will be processing Game 3's loss and channelling it directly into the decibel level.
The Knicks had a 3–2 edge in the last five meetings. New York averaged 115.4 points per game while conceding 112.2, and San Antonio averaged 112.2 points while giving up 115.4 to the Knicks. The average total points per game sits at approximately 228 and with Game 4 tonight at MSG, the Spurs have all the momentum.
New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs Player Stats
| Player Name | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Steals/Blocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson | 26.9 | 3.1 | 6.2 | 1.1/0.0 |
| Victor Wembanyama | 24.1 | 10.6 | 2.8 | 1.1/3.5 |
Teams Preview
New York Knicks Preview
Game 3 was the one that got away and the margin was slim enough to hurt. The Knicks led 62-57 heading into the second half after Hart found his shot for the first time this series with 13 points off three threes, and Brunson had briefly given New York its largest lead of the night.
Then Wembanyama took over the fourth quarter 13 points in the final period against the most hostile crowd of his career and Castle hit a clutch three that sealed the 115-111 Spurs win while MSG stood in stunned silence. Brunson shot 7-for-25 in Game 2 and followed it with another inefficient night. The back-to-back shooting struggles from the Knicks' best player are the one crack in a previously flawless postseason.
Game 4 at MSG with a chance to go up 3-1 is as important as any game this franchise has played in decades. Brunson needs to snap out of his two-game shooting slump and he will. His career pattern of responding after consecutive poor shooting nights in the playoffs is one of the most reliable tendencies in these Finals.
Expect him in the 30-34 range with more decisive early-game pull-up attempts rather than the late-clock, contested threes that have defined his last two performances. Hart's three threes in Game 3 were his first three-point makes of the entire Finals if he can sustain that shooting touch at home and combine with Brunson finding his rhythm simultaneously, the Knicks' offence reaches the level that dismantled Cleveland in four straight.
Towns at 22-26 points with aggressive post entries before Wembanyama committed to helping his 21-and-13 in Game 2 showed what is possible is the third requirement. Anunoby held Wembanyama under his average for seven of eight quarters in Games 1 and 2 the one quarter he couldn't, it cost the Knicks the game. His physical fourth-quarter defence on Wembanyama's drives is the defensive assignment the series turns on.
The Knicks on average, score 117.6 points per game, they score 49.9% from the field and are ranked 1st in the league, and 39.1% from the arc and are ranked 1st in the league. The Knicks grab 45.3 rebounds per game and ranked 4th in the season.
San Antonio Spurs Preview
Game 3 was the Spurs at their most emotionally complete winning in a building that had been waiting 27 years for a Finals game, with a packed crowd that included the sitting president and the loudest atmosphere of the entire postseason.
Wembanyama delivered 32 points and eight rebounds, executing at the rim, from the mid-range, and from the perimeter in ways that Anunoby could not consistently contain across all four quarters. Castle's 23 points on a night when MSG was entirely hostile including a closing triple that effectively ended the Knicks' fourth-quarter comeback was the biggest individual road performance of his young career.
Fox contributed five assists and 18 points in Game 1 and his attacking pace in transition has been the offensive ingredient that gives the Spurs a different look than any team the Knicks faced in the East.
Back at MSG for Game 4 with momentum behind them and confidence that they can win in this building having just done it the Spurs need Wembanyama to replicate his fourth-quarter dominance from the very first possession.
He scored 13 points in the fourth quarter of Game 3 and carried the Spurs home. The version of him that attacks the paint before Anunoby can set his coverage is the one that the Knicks have no specific answer for. Expect him in the 30-34 range with a fourth-quarter killer instinct that Game 3 fully unlocked.
Castle at MSG is a different player. His UConn history in this building has given him a comfort level that road environments typically strip away from young players another 20-24 point, efficient performance with controlled decision-making is exactly what San Antonio needs to take a 2-2 series lead and shift all momentum.
Fox said before Game 3 the Spurs needed to show resilience as a team they did. Repeating that character on the road, in the same building, with the Knicks desperate and Brunson finding his shooting touch, is the hardest thing they will face all postseason.
The Spurs on average score 113.8 points per game they score 46.3% from the field and are ranked 5th in the league, and 35.8% from the arc and are ranked 5th in the league. The Spurs grab 46.9 rebounds per game and Ranked 1st in season.
New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs Starting Lineups
| Position | Player Name |
|---|---|
| PG | Jalen Brunson |
| SG | Josh Hartl |
| SF | OG Anunoby |
| PF | Mikal Bridges |
| C | Karl-Anthony Towns |
| Position | Player Name |
|---|---|
| PG | De'Aaron Fox |
| SG | Stephon Castle |
| SF | Devin Vassell |
| PF | Julian Champagnie |
| C | Victor Wembanyama |
NEW YORK KNICKS vs SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Winning PredictionGame 4 presents a different proposition: the Spurs have now proven they can withstand the pressure of Madison Square Garden, stripping away the aura of invincibility that the Knicks carried into this series.
Victor Wembanyama’s fourth-quarter takeover in Game 3, 32-point masterclass punctuated by a 13-point final period, showed a tactical mismatch that New York struggled to solve. With Stephon Castle displaying a comfort level in MSG that defies his status and the Knicks’ backcourt dealing with significant shooting regressions, the momentum has decisively shifted. While Brunson remains a threat to bounce back, the Spurs' newfound confidence and Wembanyama’s ability to manipulate defensive rotations suggest they are poised to level the series.
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