San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA 2025-26 Season, Today Match Prediction

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San Antonio Spurs Preview

Game 3 started as the perfect home performance and became a study in what happens when the other team's bench is simply better than your entire roster. San Antonio scored the game's first 15 points and led 19-4 after five minutes in front of a roaring Frost Bank Center crowd. 

Then Caruso checked in, and everything changed in an instant. All five Spurs starters finished in double figures, Wembanyama with 26 points and Vassell with 20 leading the way and it still was not enough because OKC's reserves outscored San Antonio's entire team across three quarters. The Spurs' bench scored just 23 points while the Thunder's reserves dropped 76, the largest bench scoring differential in a Conference Finals game in NBA history. 

Game 4 is now the most important game the Spurs have played since the Wembanyama era began. Down 2-1 against the defending champions, losing here means falling into an 0-3 hole that no team has ever escaped. 

Wembanyama needs the ball earlier and more aggressively his 26 points in Game 3 came on efficient shooting but too many came in the first half when the Spurs had momentum, not in the fourth quarter when they needed him to take over. 

Expect him in the 30-34 range with a conscious decision to attack the rim against Holmgren rather than settling for face-up pull-ups at the elbow. Fox is listed as questionable with his right ankle for Game 4 if he plays meaningful minutes, his attacking pace changes the offensive geometry entirely for Castle and Vassell.  

Vassell's 20 points in Game 3 showed he is capable of being the third scorer this team needs another 18-22 from him in a crowd-fuelled home game is realistic. 

The Spurs on average score 117.0 points per game they score 48.5% from the field and are ranked 3rd in the league, and 37.7% from the arc and are ranked 4th in the league. The Spurs grab 48.4 rebounds per game and Ranked 1st in season. 

San Antonio Spurs Spread Predictions

San Antonio Spurs Player Props Predictions

Oklahoma City Thunder Preview

Game 3 was the most emphatic demonstration yet of why this team won the championship last year. Down 15-0 inside the first three minutes, Daigneault went to his bench immediately and Caruso, Jaylin Williams, McCain, and Wallace flipped the game so completely that OKC controlled the majority of things from the end of the first quarter all the way through the final buzzer. 

McCain dropped a playoff career-high 24 points, Jaylin Williams added 18 at plus-23 in just 21 minutes, and SGA contributed 26 points and 12 assists in what is becoming a standard Conference Finals line for the two-time MVP. The Thunder trailed by 15 and won by 15. That 30-point swing without their second-best player is the most terrifying statistical footnote of the entire postseason. 

On the road in San Antonio for Game 4 with a chance to take a 3-1 series lead, the Thunder have every incentive to close this out before it returns to Paycom Center. Williams' availability is game-time and the Thunder are evaluating him day-to-day — if he cannot go, McCain slides into the starting lineup for a second straight game and has now shown he can deliver 24-point playoff performances at the Conference Finals level. 

SGA at 28-32 points on the road is the expectation his 26-and-12 in Game 3 was composed and decisive, and facing a desperate Spurs home crowd typically sharpens rather than dulls him. Holmgren at 18-22 points with active rim protection against Wembanyama's drives is the tactical matchup of the game whoever wins that interior battle shapes the entire offensive rhythm for both teams. 

Caruso's instant-impact 15 points from the bench in Game 3 as the first substitute after the 15-0 deficit was one of the most important individual contributions of the series his floor spacing and defensive IQ make the entire Thunder system run more smoothly when he is on the floor. 

The Thunders, on average, score 120.7 points per game, they score 49.5% from the field and are ranked 2nd in the league, and 38.1% from the arc and are ranked 3rd in the league. The Thunders grab 41 rebounds per game and ranked 9th in the season. 

Oklahoma City Thunder Player Props Predictions

Oklahoma City Thunder Over/Under Predictions

San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder Starting Lineups

Position	Player Name
PG	Dylan Harper
SG	Stephen Castle
SF	Devin Vassell
PF	Julian Champagnie
C	Victor Wembanyama

Position	Player Name
PG	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
SG	Jalen Williams
SF	Luguentz Dort
PF	Chet Holmgren
C	Isaiah Hartenstein