Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs, NBA 2025-26 Season, Today Match Prediction

Teams Preview

Oklahoma City Thunder Preview

Game 4 was the Thunder's most complete failure of these entire playoffs combined into 48 minutes. San Antonio went on a 16-0 run in the opening quarter and never looked back, ballooning the lead to 25 points at its peak. 

Shai Gilgeous Alexander managed 19 points on 6-of-15 shooting, his worst performance of the postseason by efficiency. Holmgren and Hartenstein were the only other starters to reach double figures with 10 and 12 respectively, while the bench which had been outscoring opponents by 30 points a game held its quietest output of the series. 

OKC turned the ball over 20 times, directly surrendering 25 San Antonio points, and watched Wembanyama operate at will in the paint while their own offense never found its rhythm.

Back at Paycom Center for the pivotal Game 5 in a now-tied series, the Thunder need a response that matches the urgency of the moment. SGA at 32-36 points is the requirement not 19 on 6-for-15 and the version of him that goes for 30-plus on 50% shooting is well within reach at a home building that has given him every win outside Game 1. 

Caruso, McCain, and Jaylin Williams combined for 15-24 points each in Game 3 when the bench ignited they need to bring that same energy in Game 5 rather than the flat performance of Game 4. Holmgren at 20-24 is the interior requirement; his rebounding and rim protection collapsed in Game 4 when Wembanyama outrebounded him by four in the first half alone, and that cannot happen again on home court. 

The Thunder have won nine of ten at Paycom in the playoffs and the crowd will be at its most desperate and electric after watching the Spurs blow out their team by 21 in front of a national audience. 

The Thunders, on average, score 117.7 points per game, they score 48% from the field and are ranked 2nd in the league, and 37.2% from the arc and are ranked 3rd in the league. The Thunders grab 41.5 rebounds per game and ranked 7th in the season. 

San Antonio Spurs Preview

Game 4 was the most complete performance San Antonio has delivered in this series. They won all four individual quarters, led for 96% of the contest, and held Oklahoma City to their lowest scoring output in nearly five years. Wembanyama finished with 33 points, eight rebounds, five assists, two steals, and three blocks the total-impact performance the Spurs need from him every night rather than the one they get every other game. 

Vassell and Castle added 13 points each, and the Spurs' collective energy and quickness made the Thunder look slow and predictable from the opening tip. Winning by 21 on the road when the series was on the line tells you this team has a different level it can reach when the stakes are highest.

On the road at Paycom Center for Game 5 in a series now tied at 2-2, the Spurs need Wembanyama to deliver his third defining game of this series. His Game 1 double-overtime masterpiece 41 points, 24 rebounds and his Game 4 dominance are the two performances that have kept San Antonio alive. 

In the only game the Spurs won at home before Game 4, Wembanyama's rebounding was the decisive factor 24 boards versus four in Game 3 showed how much his paint presence changes everything. 

Expect him in the 30-34 point, 12-plus rebound range if he attacks the rim aggressively rather than settling for the perimeter pull-ups that made him easy to contain in Games 2 and 3. The Spurs went 4-1 against OKC in the regular season including wins at Paycom Center the road environment is not unfamiliar. 

Castle at 20-24 points with controlled decision-making and Fox's continued recovery adding attacking pace off the ball changes the offensive texture San Antonio needs to sustain momentum through four quarters on the road. Winning Game 4 by any margin was needed, winning by 21 sends a message winning by one would not have conveyed.

The Spurs on average score 115.5 points per game they score 47.4% from the field and are ranked 3rd in the league, and 36.6% from the arc and are ranked 4th in the league. The Spurs grab 47.9 rebounds per game and Ranked 1st in season.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs Starting Lineups